Maritime University Curriculum and Technology Planning for The 21st Century Part I: Projecting Maritime Education and Training Technology Needs Using Quantitative Technology Forecasting

Steven R. Walk
Assistant Proffesor. Engineering Head, Center for Technology Forecasting Maine Maritime Academy Castine.

Walk

Abstract

Throughout the maritime indurstry, success follows those who stay ahead of the curve, technologically speaking. This truism applies to the Maritime Universities as well, where maritime education and training continuously changes to adopt new technology in industry. But what does a technolog curve look like? How do you know where you stand, or what’s coming next? How can you tell when technology change will happen?

As a method of predicting the future, technology forecasting is unique in its use of quantitative time-based information to arrive at reliable projections of the technological future. Many methods have been developed to project in time technology diffusion, performance envelopes, and substitution rates. Technology precursor relationships have also been identified, wherein fixed time-lag relationships that emerged during technological transitions in the past provide projections of time-lag relationship of future technological and curriculum change. With just such a critical piece of information, maritime university educatiors can plan new curricula and learning technology investment with confidence.

This paper, Part I of a series, introduces quantitative technology forecasting, the focus of reseacrh and applications at the Center for Technology Forecasting at Maine Maritime Academy. Important methodologies, sample forecasts, and implications for projecting the future of maritime education are presented.